In this study, we empirically investigate whether or not the conventional belief that new information about fundamental value is revealed in the futures market ahead of the spot market is applicable to four important storable energy commodities, oil, gasoline, heating oil and natural gas. Taking...

This paper provides an underlying reason for why recent Bayesian trend-cycle decompositions of U.S. real GDP differ despite using identical unobserved components models. We stress that a pitfall in estimating unobserved components models accounts for the divergence in the empirical conclusions....

We study how an advantage given to an interim winner in sequential conflicts characterizes dynamic competition between players and influences their payoffs. As the intensity of competition during each period is negatively correlated, perfect security is not necessarily desirable for contending...

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the optimal quantity of liquid bonds by investigating the following three questions: Under what conditions is it socially desirable to contract the bond supply, what incentive problems are mitigated by doing this, and how large are the...

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the optimal quantity of liquid bonds by investigating the following three questions: Under what conditions is it socially desirable to contract the bond supply, what incentive problems are mitigated by doing this, and how large are the...

We describe the construction of a panel data set from the U.S. patent data that contains measures of inventors' life-cycle Ramp;D productivity--patents and patent citations. We match the data set to information on the U.S. pharmaceutical and semiconductor firms for whom they work. In this paper...

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the relationship between monetary policy, money demand, and unemployment. Our model succeeds in replicating the empirical fact of a downward sloping Phillips curve for low inflation rates and an upward sloping curve for high inflation...