We extract expectations about future economic growth from firms' cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) announcements, and show they predict changes in economic growth rates and foreign exchange rate returns. The predictability is driven by the cross-border M&A announcements of cyclical...

We decompose gross cross-border bank-to-bank funding between arms-length (interbank) and related (intragroup) funding, and show that while interbank funding is withdrawn when global risk is high, intragroup funding remains stable during these periods, despite being more volatile on average. We...

Increases in defense spending – the largest portion of discretionary government spending in the U.S. – are negatively associated with private sector firm innovation measured using various patent-based proxies. A central finding in our study is that the extent to which government spending...

We examine the determinants of cross-border interbank and intra-group funding across crisis and non-crisis periods. Using a previously unexplored data set spanning 25 banking systems, we find aggregate intra-group funding is unrelated to fluctuations in either global or local macroeconomic...

We find a strong link between currency excess returns and the relative strength of the business cycle. Buying currencies of strong economies and selling currencies of weak economies generates high returns both in the cross section and time series of countries. These returns stem primarily from...

Firm fixed effects alone explain as much of the variation in acquirer returns as all the firm- and deal-specific characteristics combined. An interquartile range of acquirer fixed effects is over 6%, comparable to the interquartile range of acquirer returns. Acquirer returns persist over time,...

We develop a novel method to dynamically hedge foreign exchange exposure in international equity and bond portfolios. The method exploits the time-series predictability of currency returns, which we show emerges from exploiting a forecastable component in global factor returns. The hedging...

We examine the impact of changes in national debt on the mergers and acquisitions (M&As) activity. Although increases in government debt reduces the acquisition likelihood, we find no evidence for the traditional interest rate mechanism. Instead, we document that upsurges in national debt...