We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using a unique intraday dataset, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, commodity prices, and...

We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all...

I study the role of firms' uncertainty in the transmission of forward guidance to investment. To do so, I employ a quarterly firm-level panel of U.S. publicly traded firms. I measure forward guidance shocks based on unexpected changes in the slope of the yield curve in a 30-minute window around...

Do people pay more attention to inflation when it is high? A large class of behavioral models in macroeconomics would predict that. I test this prediction by studying the financial market impact of U.S. macroeconomic news announcements following the 2021 inflation surge. I show that the effect...

Partners in emerging risk representative application (ERRA) A3 'Emerging risks related to the industrial use of automated and un-manned surveillance of industrial infrastructure' develop a set of new technologies to automate aerial surveillance by collecting images with a drone and automatically...

Using novel firm-level microdata and leveraging a natural experiment, this paper provides causal evidence for the role of trade and multinational firms in the cross-country transmission of shocks. Foreign multinational affiliates in the U.S. exhibit substantial intermediate input linkages with...

This paper shows that the fiscal multiplier for purchases of durable and investment goods is very small - much smaller than the multiplier for nondurable goods. Standard models predict small durables multipliers because private sector purchases of durable goods are highly intertemporally...

We analyze the optimal Taylor rule in a standard New Keynesian model. If the central bank can observe the output gap and the inflation rate without error, then it is typically optimal to respond infinitely strongly to observed deviations from the central bank's targets. If it observes inflation...