The accuracy of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) monthly estimates of the nation’s quarterly nominal and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates are examined using a novel analytical framework based on the flexible two-piece generalized distribution. An analysis of the...

A unified probabilistic framework is developed to analyze and compare the impact of the psychological biases of overconfidence and underconfidence on managerial perceptions about the expected value, overall risk, downside risk, value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of decision-making...

Using a flexible statistical framework that accounts for time-varying skewness and leptokurtosis, we examine the stochastic behavior of Bitcoin in comparison to five major currencies. The empirical findings reveal that the distribution of all series is leptokurtic. Once the effect of...

This paper discusses three families of flexible parametric probability density functions: the skewed generalized t, the exponential generalized beta of the second kind, and the inverse hyperbolic sin distributions. These families allow quite flexible modeling the first four moments of a...

This paper provides a survey of three families of flexible parametric probability density functions (the skewed generalized t, the exponential generalized beta of the second kind, and the inverse hyperbolic sine distributions) which can be used in modeling a wide variety of econometric problems....

We study an equilibrium risk and return model to explore the effects of the coronavirus crisis and associated skewness. We derive the moment and equilibrium equations, specifying skew-ness price of risk as an additive component of the effect of variance on mean expected return. We estimate our...

Efficient estimation of the equity cost of operating public corporations is essential for a rational investment policy. Traditional OLS beta estimates of a single stock are known to suffer from violations of normality due to outliers – extreme returns caused by large, unpredictable...