In this paper, we use a Bayesian global vector autoregressive model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a flattening of euro area yield curves. Our findings indicate positive effects on real activity and prices, both within the euro area as well as in neighboring economies. Spillovers...

We use a non-linear factor-augmented vector-autoregressive model to evaluate international effects of an unexpected decrease in euro area policy rates. Given the current environment of ultra low or negative interest rates, we especially focus on potential differences in the transmission of the...

As a consequence of asset purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB), longer- term yields in the euro area decline, and spreads between euro area long-term yields narrow. To assess spillovers of these recent financial developments, we use a Bayesian variant of the global vector autoregressive...

This paper proposes a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregression with factor stochastic volatility to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of international uncertainty shocks in G7 countries. The curse of dimensionality is addressed by means of a global-local shrinkage prior that mimics...

We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a...

In this paper, we reconsider the question how monetary policy influences exchange rate dynamics. To this end, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model is combined with a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Instead of focusing exclusively on how monetary policy shocks...

In this paper, we compare the transmission of a conventional monetary policy shock with that of an unexpected decrease in the term spread, which mirrors quantitative easing. Employing a time-varying vector autoregression with stochastic volatility, our results are two-fold: First, the spread...

In line with the recent policy discussion on the use of macroprudential measures to respond to crossborder risks arising from capital flows, this paper tries to quantify to what extent macroprudential policies (MPPs) have been able to stabilize capital flows in Central, Eastern and Southeastern...