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I build a price-ratio model based on the Campbell and Shiller (1988) decomposition to test which components of investor expectations best explains cross-sectional price differences. I evaluate the in- and out-of-sample performance of my model, which uses a higher-order expansion with an added...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236440
law of one price, and is present in all but risk-neutral economies. We test the cross-sectional predictions of our theory … equity than for assets, and stronger for more levered firms — consistent with the theory. We test also the timeseries … implications of the theory. Time variation in asset ivol causes time variation in the option value of equity that translates into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910108
In a model where investors disagree about the fundamentals of two stocks, the state price density depends on investor disagreements for both stocks, especially the larger stock. This implies that disagreement among investors in a large firm has a spillover effect on the pricing of other stocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972769
successfully replicates (1) the volatility of stock prices and (2) the positive correlation between the price dividend ratio and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490485
quantitatively replicates (1) the volatility of stock prices and (2) the positive correlation between the price dividend ratio and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018988
We create a market-wide measure of dispersion in options investors' expectations by aggregating across all stocks the dispersion in trading volume across moneynesses (DISP). DISP exhibits strong negative predictive power for future market returns and its information content is not subsumed by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905055
Daily asset returns are modeled using self decomposable limit laws and the structure is used to estimate the density of the uncentered data. Estimates of mean returns are a byproduct of the density estimate. Estimates of mean returns via density estimation have significantly lower standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966101
We present some empirical evidence for short volatility strategies and for the cyclical pattern of their P&L. The … cyclical pattern of the short volatility strategies produces an alpha in good times but collapses to the beta in bad times. We … introduce a factor model with risk-aversion to explain the risk-premium of short volatility strategies as a compensation to bear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948393
predict future returns, there is a significant relation between volatility spreads and expected stock returns. Portfolio level … the realized-implied volatility spread that can be viewed as a proxy for volatility risk. The results also provide … evidence for a significantly positive link between expected returns and the call-put options' implied volatility spread that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116882
its joint impact with heterogeneous beliefs about news content. Investors trade volatility derivatives against each other … positions. When disagreement about news arrival frequency is low, volatility exhibits mean reversion because extreme optimists … arrival rate leads to volatility persistence. When news is absent in such environments, volatility sellers dominate, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015420719