We establish the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of a class of multivariate GARCH processes. The conditions are mild and coincide with the minimal ones in the univariate case. In particular, contrary to the current...

We introduce the notion of continuously invertible volatility models that relies on some Lyapunov condition and some regularity condition. We show that it is almost equivalent to the volatilities forecasting efficiency of the parametric inference approach based on the Stochastic Recurrence...

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

This paper investigated the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on some selected macro-economic variables such as real GDP, gross fixed capital formation and unemployment. Data for the variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin. For the assessment of this...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

Several studies have highlighted the fact that heavy-tailedness of asset returns can be the consequence of conditional heteroskedasticity. GARCH models have thus become very popular, given their ability to account for volatility clustering and, implicitly, heavy tails. However, these models...

Market risk management is one of the key factors to success in managing financial institutions. Underestimated risk can have desastrous consequences for individual companies and even whole economies, not least as could be seen during the recent crises. Overestimated risk, on the other side, may...

In this paper, we extend Bai and Perron’s (1998, Econometrica, p.47-78) framework for multiple break testing to linear models estimated via Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS). Within our framework, the break points are estimated simultaneously with the regression parameters via minimization of the...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

A new approach is proposed to estimate a large class of multivariate volatility models. The method is based on estimating equation-by-equation the volatility parameters of the individual returns by quasi-maximum likelihood in a first step, and estimating the correlations based on...