Klimapolitische Entscheidungen sind herausfordernd. Eine besondere Schwierigkeit liegt in der Folgeabschätzung: Meist sind zwar die möglichen Handlungsfolgen, nicht aber deren Wahrscheinlichkeiten bekannt (Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit). Mitunter ist sogar unklar, welche Handlungsfolgen...

Side effects of "solar-radiation management" (SRM) might be perceived as an important metric when society decides on implementing SRM as a climate policy option to alleviate anthropogenic global warming. We generalize cost-risk analysis that originally trades off expected welfare loss from...

We present Bayesian updating of an imprecise probability measure, represented by a class of precise multidimensional probability measures. Choice and analysis of our class are motivated by expert interviews that we conducted with modelers in the context of climatic change. From the interviews we...

There is an emerging planetary consensus: Climate protection is necessary. Preventing global mean temperature from rising more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels is a common goal of climate protection. In essence, it requires a stabilization of carbon dioxide emissions within the next two...

Selecting appropriate indicators is essential to aggregate the information provided by climate model outputs into a manageable set of relevant metrics on which assessments of climate engineering (CE) can be based. From all the variables potentially available from climate models, indicators need...

Cost-Risk Analysis (CRA) is a method to mathematically deduce preferences in line with a climate target. CRA is a trade-off, where costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions are weighted against the risk of exceeding climate targets. CRA enables a community supporting climate targets to...