We formalise and present an innovative general approach for developing complex system models from survey data by applying Bayesian Networks. The challenges and approaches to converting survey data into usable probability forms are explained and a general approach for integrating expert knowledge...

The objective of this paper is to provide an estimate of the elasticity of elephant poaching with respect to prices. Ivory being a storable commodity subjects its price to Hotelling's no-arbitrage condition, hence allowing identification of the supply curve. The price of gold, one of many...

In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered...

Piracy off the coast of Somalia took the world by surprise when, within a six-year span (2005-2011), as many as 1,099 ships were attacked, among which more than 200 were successfully hijacked. In 2012 however, attacks had plummeted with no new hijacking reported between 2013 and mid-2015. The...