Do elementary statistics or equilibrium theory deliver any insight regarding how we should argue in debates? We provide an answer in a model in which each discussant wants to convince the audience that a specific state holds. If the discussants' payoffs in the audience's posterior are concave...

We introduce a "nestedness" relation for a general class of sender-receiver games and compare equilibrium properties, in particular the amount of information transmitted, across games that are nested. Roughly, game B is nested in game A if the players’s optimal actions are closer in game B. We...

This paper studies communication games in which the sender is possibly honest (who tells the truth) and the receiver is possibly naive (who follows the messages as if they were truthful) and the message space is finite. I establish the existence of a message-monotone equilibrium (in which the...

The problem of CO embodied in international trade has attracted increasing attention in China. To analyze this issue, the present paper directly calculates emission factors for 15 industries in 2002, 2005 and 2007. We then examine a consumption‐based system and a single‐region input–output...

I study the welfare effects of an informative public signal in two sender-receiver games: in {A}, the sender reports after the arrival of the public signal; in {B}, the sender reports before the arrival of the public signal. In both games the receiver's equilibrium payoff is not increasing in...

In the ideal Black-Scholes world, financial time series are assumed 1) stationary (time homogeneous) and 2) having conditionally normal distribution given the past. These two assumptions have been widely-used in many methods such as the RiskMetrics, one risk management method considered as...

Over recent years, study on risk management has been prompted by the Basel committee for regular banking supervisory. There are however limitations of some widely-used risk management methods that either calculate risk measures under the Gaussian distributional assumption or involve numerical...

Risk management technology applied to high dimensional portfolios needs simple and fast methods for calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR). The multivariate normal framework provides a simple off-the-shelf methodology but lacks the heavy tailed distributional properties that are observed in data. A...