This note presents a simple generalization of the adaptive expectations mechanism in which the learning parameter is time variant. It is shown that expectations generated in this way are rational in the sense of producing minimum mean squared forecast errors for a broad class of time series...

This paper examines the issue of measuring logistics costs from an applied trade policy research perspective, as well as identifying logistics-intensive sectors. It focuses on currently available data at the macro- and firm-levels. Data sources considered include national accounts, national...

Abstract This paper analyzes the relationship between regional trade integration and trade costs in services industries. The empirical analysis relies, on the one hand, on a dataset of theory-consistent bilateral trade costs calculated for 55 countries over the period 1999-2009 and, on the other...

This paper generalizes recent work for India which shows that the use of imported intermediates is associated with the creation of new product varieties by domestic firms. It uses firm-level data for 17 developing countries and 13 sectors to show that firms that source their inputs...

This paper uses data on 11 industries in 85 developing countries to show that trade times matter for import and export performance at the firm-level. Firms import more intermediate inputs if import licensing times are shorter. They export more of their production if border clearance times are...

This paper paints the first empirical portrait of services firms in the developing world. Compared with manufacturers, service providers are smaller, but growing faster. They are more productive, pay higher wages, and invest more heavily than manufacturers, but are less likely to export or to...

This paper uses firm-level data from 119 developing countries to show that services sector productivity is positively associated with manufacturing productivity. Moreover, the link between productivity in services and manufacturing is particularly strong for manufacturing firms that are more...

This paper takes the non-tariff measures (NTMs) codified and collected under the MAST (Multi-Agency Support Team) typology to study their economic effects, concentrating on the effects on prices, quantities and welfare. To this end, NTMs are categorized into six groups (tariff-like measures,...

This paper shows that export costs, tariffs, and international transport costs are all important determinants of geographical export diversification in a sample of 123 developing countries. A 10% reduction in any one of these factors produces a 5%-6% increase in the number of foreign markets...

An increasing services orientation is likely to be a key feature of the economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People's Republic of China, and India (collectively referred to as "ACI") over the medium-term. This paper aims to present a compendium of relevant data on...