accounting for the long-term price dynamic (i.e. its independent modeling), has demonstrated its efficiency in gaining forecast … requiring any a priori setups, still, do not solve the studied issue. In turn, forecast combining conducted for individual … priori choices, but also has lower forecast error and, thus, performs better than individual models. We also propose a new …

both, the location and the shape of spot price densities. A comparison with benchmark methods and an application to risk …

distribution forecast accuracy. The application for German electricity prices 2015 reveal that: (i) An autoregressive specification … complete evaluation of point, interval and density forecast, including formal statistical tests, can ensure a correct model …

statistically. We show that the task of forecast evaluation can be simplified from assessing a multivariate distribution over prices …