a significantly improved match between ex-ante and ex-post forecast uncertainty. According to our estimates, uncertainty … often produce squared forecast errors that are much larger on average. In this paper, we document the novel stylized fact … that this variance misalignment is related to the rounding behavior of survey participants. Rounding may reflect the fact …

a significantly improved match between ex-ante and ex-post forecast uncertainty. According to our estimates, uncertainty … often produce squared forecast errors that are much larger on average. In this paper, we document the novel stylized fact … that this variance misalignment is related to the rounding behavior of survey participants. Rounding may reflect the fact …

(ii) deliver a significantly improved match between ex ante and ex post forecast uncertainty. According to our estimates … ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much larger on average. In this paper, we document the novel … stylized fact that this variance misalignment is related to the rounding behavior of survey participants. Rounding may reflect …

are considered. Generally, preliminary preparations of forecast corrections are shown to be able, under specified …

inflation. -- Path forecast ; forecast uncertainty ; simultaneous confidence region ; Scheffé’s S-method ; Mahalanobis distance …Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected … trajectory of a random variable in periods T+1 to T+H is a key ingredient for decision making under uncertainty. The …

realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a … forecast errors are neither predictable nor autocorrelated. To arrive at this result, we develop a novel methodology to … environments where information processing is more costly. This results in major forecast errors that are predictable and …

receive personalized response scales, centered at each participant's point forecast. Personalized response scales offer two …

This study investigates the utility of business uncertainty indicators as predictive tools for forecasting economic … the dynamics of economic uncertainty and its impact on overall economic performance is of paramount importance. The study … the first half of 2024. Given the importance of uncertainty in shaping economic outcomes, the central research question of …