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other advanced economies. We use a broad set of financial indicators to capture cyclical systemic risk in the financial … that an increase in financial indicators is associated with both a more adverse prediction for growth-at-risk (5th … policy-relevant applications. First, we summarise how financial indicators and growth-at-risk have evolved over time in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012240732
This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014313751
euro area covering the real economy, monetary policy and measures of ex ante and ex post systemic risk representing … take a risk management perspective, One exercise considers the intertemporal financial stability trade-off in the context …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343148
(growth-at-risk) in the short-term (1-year ahead). However, only vulnerability indicators contain information about growth-at-risk … Systemic Risk Indicator (SRI) proposed by Lang et al. (2019) outperforms in terms of in-sample explanatory power and out …-of-sample predictive ability for medium-term growth-at-risk in euro area countries. Shocks to the SRI induce a rich "term structure" for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278684
100% depreciationrate and it implies that risk does not affect investment behavior. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326976
This paper examines the sources of economic growth in Algeria, studying the key drivers of their slow and weak economic performance, during the period of 1979-2019 from the perspective of the augmented growth accounting framework and the growth regression method. More specifically, the paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014517023
a 100% depreciation rate and it implies that risk does not affect investment behavior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014118340
Cross-country regressions are a well-established means of attempting to uncover the empirical determinants of economic growth. However, in an influential paper, Levine and Renelt (1992) demonstrate that the results of these studies are very sensitive to the choice of conditioning variables....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014062145
This chapter reviews the literature that tries to explain the disparity and variation of GDP per worker and GDP per capita across countries and across time. There are many potential explanations for the different patterns of development across countries, including differences in luck, raw...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024240
A country's growth of output is identically equal to its ratio of investment to output and the productivity of investment. In "new" growth theory regressions, which include the investment ratio, all other included variables pick up why the productivity of investment differs between countries....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011617404