This paper explores the specification and use of uncertainty measures in constructions of policy forecasts of money market activity. The concept of a policy forecast implies efforts not only to explicitly condition forecasts on assumptions regarding short-run operating procedures but also to...

A stochastic framework for coordination of macroeconomic policies is introduced in this paper. It is suggested that: (i) measures of policy accountability should allow for the climate of uncertainty that surrounds policy decisions, and (ii) most models of aggregate economic activity impose...

In a Ramsey policy regime, heterogeneity in beliefs about the potential costs of climate change is shown to produce policy ambiguities that alter carbon prices and taxation. Three sources of ambiguity are considered: (i) the private sector is skeptical, with beliefs that are unknown to the...

It has been argued that whenever regression models involve nonstationary and trending variables, the estimation methods appropriate to stationary series cannot be applied to such models and instead require cointegration techniques. Unfortunately, the extant methodology applied to cointegration...

In this chapter we show that all the known estimators of the coefficients of econometric models are inconsistent if their coefficients and error terms are not unique. In their stead, we present models having unique coefficients and error terms, with specific applicability to the analyses of...

As every econometrician knows, in a regression with one regressor, the dependent and explanatory variables may be spuriously correlated if they may have been affected by some third variable, a common cause. In a highly regarded article, Granger and Newbold (1974) were not concerned with this...

It is often thought that the error term in a regression represents the net effect of omitted variables. This poses a problem whenever the purpose of a model is to explain an economic phenomenon, because the estimated coefficients as well as the error will be wrong in the sense that they are not...