We examined the relationship between maximizing (i.e. seeking the best) versus satisficing (i.e.seeking the good enough) tendencies and forecasting ability in a real-world prediction task: forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. In Studies 1 and 2, participants gave probabilistic...

Before and during the 2010 Soccer World Cup, participants made probabilistic forecasts for the outcomes of the tournament. We examine the relationship between their depression levels and their performance in this forecasting task. Across two different waves of predictions and with multiple...

We present results from two experiments that reveal significant gender differences in ordering behavior in the newsvendor problem. In high margin settings, males tend to order more than females, and they also tend to achieve higher profits. There are no gender differences in low margin settings....

Subjective probabilistic judgments are inevitable in many real life domains. A common way to obtain such judgments is to assess fractiles or confidence intervals. However, such judgments tend to be systematically overconfident. For example, 90% confidence intervals for future uncertain...

We examine the relationship between Machiavellianism and overconfidence. Participants were invited to take part in a real-world prediction task: forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. In Studies 1 and 2, participants gave probabilistic forecasts for the outcomes of the tournament,...

Before and during the 2010 Soccer World Cup, participants made probabilistic forecasts of the outcomes of the tournament. We examine the relationship between their depression levels and their performance at this forecasting task. Across two different waves of predictions and with multiple...