This paper proposes a methodology that combines the use of Schwarz's BIC in subset autoregression and subset transfer function identification along with the posterior odds ratio test developed by Poskitt & Tremayne (1987) in the context of testing for Granger-causality and cointegration tests....

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of an oil price shock in a small open industrial economy without oil resources, namely, Switzerland. First, we test whether oil price shocks Granger-cause Swiss macroeconomic variables, and use a medium-scale macroeconometric model to track the...