This article evaluates the performance of filter rules on four Asian exchange rates against the U.S. dollar. Risk premiums derived from the choice under uncertainty model and the GARCH specification are used to construct the risk-adjusted return series. Results show that risk premiums have...

Under near zero United States (US) interest rates, the international dollar standard malfunctions. Emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates are swamped with "hot money" inflows. Emerging market central banks intervene to prevent their currencies from rising precipitously. They...

We apply the Campbell-Shiller return decomposition to exchange rate returns and fundamentals in a stationary panel vector autoregression framework. The return decomposition is then used to analyse how different investor segments react to news as captured by the different return components. The...

We isolate a U.S. dollar currency premium by comparing corporate bonds issued in the dollar and the euro by firms o utside t he U .S. a nd e uro a rea. We make s everal empirical observations that dissect the perceived advantage of borrowing in the dollar. First, while the dollar dominates...

We investigate possible presence of time-varying risk premia in forward pound, yen,and Euro monthly exchange rates versus the US dollar 3 over the last two decades. We study this issue using regression techniques and separately using a signal plus noise model. Our models account for time-varying...

We investigate time varying risk premia in forward dollar/pound monthly exchange rates over the last two decades. We study this issue using a signal plus noise model and separately using regression techniques. Our models account for time varying volatility and non-normalities in the observed...

We describe a novel currency investment strategy, the `dollar carry trade,' which delivers large excess returns, uncorrelated with the returns on well-known carry trade strategies. Using a no-arbitrage model of exchange rates we show that these excess returns compensate U.S. investors for taking...

We show that a global imbalance risk factor that captures the spread in countries' external imbalances and their propensity to issue external liabilities in foreign currency explains the cross-sectional variation in currency excess returns. The economic intuition is simple: net debtor countries...

This paper demonstrates that the estimated parameters in previous research, with wrong signs and absurd sizes, do not indicate market inefficiency and market behavior as they appear to. In the real world where forecasting errors are substantially large, a "correct" or an "unreasonable" parameter...