This paper establishes that when equations connecting coefficients from reduced forms with their structural counterparts are inconsistent, a necessary and sufficient condition standard in econometric textbooks for the identifiability of coefficients in linear simultaneous equations systems is...

Typically, the explanatory variables included in a regression model, in conjunction with the omitted relevant regressors implied by the usual error term, have both direct and indirect effects on the dependent variable. Attempts to obtain their separate estimates have been plagued with...

In this paper we introduce a class of tentatively plausible, fixed-coefficient models of money demand and evaluate their forecast performance. When these models are re-estimated allowing all coefficients to vary over time, the forecasting performance improves dramatically. Aside from offering...

The ontological basis for causality testing must be some empirically interpretable system leading one to specify a logically valid a priori law that can be shown to exist. Such paradigms, as conventional linear and non-linear models, be they structural or time series, tend to embody...

A stochastic framework for coordination of macroeconomic policies is introduced in this paper. It is suggested that: (i) measures of policy accountability should allow for the climate of uncertainty that surrounds policy decisions, and (ii) most models of aggregate economic activity impose...

The three pillars of econometric modeling are: (1) the reduced form, (2) the recursive form, and (3) the structural form. Each of these techniques exists for the purpose of revealing the joint conditional probability distributions of current and lagged endogenous variables conditional on the...

The conclusions of a logically consistent economic theory which strictly adheres to Aristotle's axioms of logic are factually true if its sufficient conditions are all factually true. Alternatively, if a conclusion of such a theory is false, then at least one of its assumptions is false....

Among the many troublesome econometric relationships, the demand for money has proved especially recalcitrant, as evidenced by a long history of tinkering with basic specifications, always in response to some recent perceived forecast failure. The shortcomings of this approach and an alternative...

This paper (i) derives a number of properties of a newly specified multi-input-single-output (MISO) production function with a derived error term, and (ii) using iteratively rescaled generalized least squares, presents estimates of the cross-sectionally varying coefficients of a...

It has been argued that whenever regression models involve nonstationary and trending variables, estimation methods appropriate to stationary series cannot be applied to such models and instead require cointegration techniques. Unfortunately, extant methodologies applied to cointegration are a...