This policy brief reports on the nominal GDP (NGDP) gap, a measure of the stance of US monetary policy, is the percent difference between the actual level and the neutral level of NGDP. The neutral level of NGDP is the dollar size of the economy when monetary policy has been neither expansionary...

This policy brief reports on the NGDP gap, a measure of unexpected changes in the dollar size of the US economy, is the percent difference between the actual and the neutral level of NGDP. The neutral level of NGDP, in turn, is a sum of all dollar incomes expected by households and businesses...

One of the most important questions facing the Federal Reserve (Fed) is also one of the hardest for it to answer: What is the current stance of monetary policy? The answer to this question is straightforward in theory, but is quite challenging to apply in practice. Despite many valiant efforts...

Monetary policy is hard. In the best of times, it requires a well-informed understanding of the economy and the ability to respond in a timely manner. In less favorable conditions, monetary policy requires near omniscience and the herculean power to stop economic disasters from unfolding.This...

The authors apply a Hidden Markov Model to identify regimes of shifting inflation and then employ an attribution technique based on the Mahalanobis distance to identify the economic variables that determine the trajectory of inflation. Their analysis enables policymakers to focus on the most...

Technological advancements in the means of production are the driving force behind the changes in the prevailing system of socio-economic relations. Feudalism was transformed into capitalism as a result of such advancements. While man obtained physical freedom, the financial freedom remained...

Following the emergence of the global pandemic caused by COVID-19, governments have begun the process of stabilizing the shocks caused by the pandemic through macroeconomic policy id Est through fiscal policy and monetary policy. That is why it is a modern, new, and relevant topic for study....

Central bank independence is now in vogue because of previous experience of politicisation of monetary policy. But can the central bankers be trusted more than the politicians? In this Occasional Paper, Professor Otmar Issing, the leading monetary economist and one of Europe's most influential...

In this article, we argue that the present constellation of exchange rate arrangements among the major currencies has led to the creation of excessive global liquidity, which has contributed to asset price bubbles. Although the exchange rates of many of the major currencies — including the...

Unlike my distinguished fellow panelists, I am not the head of a central bank. So I take my marching orders from the conference organizers. In this case, they asked me to ruminate on the extent to which central banks’ independence and credibility have been affected by their actions during the...