We propose a dynamic measure of extremal connectedness across investment styles of hedge funds. Using multivariate extreme value regression techniques, we estimate this measure conditional on factors reflecting the economic uncertainty and the state of the financial markets, and derive several...

With climate change accelerating, the frequency of climate disasters is expected to increase in the decades to come. There is ongoing debate as to how different climatic regions will be affected by such an acceleration. In this paper, we describe a model for predicting the frequency of climate...

In this paper, we describe and study a class of linear shrinkage estimators of the covariance matrix that is well-suited for high dimensional matrices, has a rather wide domain of applicability, and is rooted into the Gaussian conjugate framework of Chen (1979). We propose here a new look at...

How will our estimates of climate uncertainty evolve in the coming years, as new learning is acquired and climate research makes further progress? As a tentative contribution to this question, we argue here that the future path of climate uncertainty may itself be quite uncertain, and that our...

type="main" xml:id="rssb12058-abs-0001" <title type="main">Summary</title> <p>The paper focuses primarily on temperature extremes measured at 24 European stations with at least 90 years of data. Here, the term extremes refers to rare excesses of daily maxima and minima. As mean temperatures in this region have been warming...</p>

Probability weighted moments (PWM) are classically used in hydrology. Here we study their properties for small samples. Links between PWMs and the hazard rate ordering are identified. We propose PWM tail equivalences and derive explicit variances for PWM unbiased estimators.

The popularity of state-space models comes from their flexibilities and the large variety of applications they have been applied to. For multivariate cases, the assumption of normality is very prevalent in the research on Kalman filters. To increase the applicability of the Kalman filter to a...