In this paper we implement a methodology that generates population projections combining the cohort-component method with Monte Carlo simulation of its main inputs: fertility rates by age, survival probabilities by age and gender and immigration flows by age and gender. The Monte Carlo...

In this paper we present a methodology designed to estimate the future path of the interest payments of central government. The basic idea is to represent in a compact way the joint dynamics of debt liabilities and interest payments as a function of four elements: the initial outstanding amounts...

We present a medium-scale dynamic factor model to estimate and forecast the rate of growth of the Spanish economy in the very short term. The intermediate size of the model overcomes the serious specification problems associated with large scale-models and the implicit loss of information of...

Over the last decades, the estimation of the slack in the economy has become an essential piece of analysis for policymakers, both on the monetary policy and the fiscal policy front. Output gap estimation techniques have flourished accordingly, although there is no consensus on a best-performing...

We present a short-term forecasting model based on tax data. The model combines daily information from the Immediate Supply of Information System for VAT declaration forms, with monthly indicators derived from tax data. The model uses the GDP as a macroeconomic synthesis. The model combines...

We present a library of MATLAB functions designed for the estimation and analysis of static factor models, both by the method of the principal component and by maximum likelihood. The library includes functions for the treatment of unbalanced panels, the evaluation through transversal resampling...

We present a procedure to perform seasonal adjustment over daily sales data. The model adjusts daily information from the Immediate Supply of Information System for Value Added Tax declaration forms compiled by the Spanish Tax Agency. The procedure performs signal extraction and forecasting at...