We provide results for an efficient analytical valuation of partial moments of the multivariate Gaussian distribution over convex polyhedrons to aid the solution, sensitivity analysis and structural analysis of a large number of two-stage resource acquisition and allocation problems. These...

Do participants make decisions consistent with risk-value tradeoffs? One hundred and five undergraduate business students made risk and preference judgments about lottery pairs in a series of paper surveys. The data indicate that the participants’ responses were generally consistent with the...

Many important decision and risk analysis problems are complicated by dependencies between input variables. In such cases, standard one-variable-at-a-time sensitivity analysis methods are typically eschewed in favor of fully probabilistic, or n-way, analysis techniques which simultaneously model...

This paper proposes an approach for solving a multi-factor real options problem by approximating the underlying stochastic process with an implied binomial tree. The implied binomial tree is constructed to be consistent with simulated market information. By simulating European option prices as...

Abstract Modeling the dependence between uncertainties in decision and risk analyses is an important part of the problem structuring process. We focus on situations where correlated uncertainties are discrete, and extend the concept of the copula-based approach for modeling correlated continuous...

Motivated by the real-world challenges of real options evaluation faced by many companies when commodity prices exhibit dramatic volatility and project values can become negative, this paper presents a generalized framework for solving a multifactor real options problem by approximating the...

This paper presents a general framework based on copulas for modeling dependent multivariate uncertainties through the use of a decision tree. The proposed dependent decision tree model allows multiple dependent uncertainties with arbitrary marginal distributions to be represented in a decision...