In what follows I will: (1) Argue that a major problem in megaproject policy and planning is the high level of misinformation about costs and benefits that decision makers face in deciding whether to build, and the high risks such misinformation generates; (2) Explore the causes of...

This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large infrastructure projects. First, it identifies as the main problem in major infrastructure development pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits, and risks involved. A consequence of misinformation...

The Supplementary Green Book Guidance on Optimism Bias (HM Treasury 2003) with reference to the Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK (Mott MacDonald 2002) notes that there is a demonstrated, systematic, tendency for project appraisers to be overly optimistic and that to redress this...

Recently as I was concluding a study on megaprojects, I thought of Nobel Prize winner F.A. Hayek's controversial article about the selection of political leaders, Why The Worst Gets on Top. Like Hayek's political leaders we found that is not necessarily the best megaprojects that succeed.

Some years ago I was threatened by a high-ranking government official as I was beginning research on cost overrun in large public works projects. The official told me in no uncertain terms that I came up with results that reflected badly on his government and its projects he would personally...

When the Warnow tunnel concession (see this issue of World Tunnelling, p 65 et seq.) was awarded, it soon emerged that the traffic forecasts had to be corrected to include user charges. Once that correction had been made, it was clear the project needed substantial public subsidies. The project...

Large infrastructure projects are being planned and designed all over the world. As these projects require state funding and have a strong spatial and environmental impact, they tend to figure prominently in all parts of the national political ball game. Though the physical results of...

As megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come under increased scrutiny. We interviewed Bent Flyvbjerg, who has extensively studied megaproject development. Flyvbjerg has found systematic problems in the development process: by intentionally misrepresenting...

The Iron Triangle formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management – cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of 10 cases. Academic research has argued that Optimism Bias and...

Out-of-control information technology (IT) projects have ended the careers of top managers, such as EADS CEO Noël Forgeard and Levi Strauss’ CIO David Bergen. Moreover, IT projects have brought down whole companies, like Kmart in the US and Auto Windscreen in the UK. Software and other IT is...