Chapter 3 identified as a main problem in large-scale investment projects the existence of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation with project promoters. A consequence of such bias is a high incidence of cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in projects. This chapter develops a number of...

If we want to empower and re-enchant organization research, we need to do three things. First, we must drop all pretence, however indirect, at emulating the success of the natural sciences in producing cumulative and predictive theory, for their approach simply does not work in organization...

In what follows I will: (1) Argue that a major problem in megaproject policy and planning is the high level of misinformation about costs and benefits that decision makers face in deciding whether to build, and the high risks such misinformation generates; (2) Explore the causes of...

This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large infrastructure projects. First, it identifies as the main problem in major infrastructure development pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits, and risks involved. A consequence of misinformation...

The Supplementary Green Book Guidance on Optimism Bias (HM Treasury 2003) with reference to the Review of Large Public Procurement in the UK (Mott MacDonald 2002) notes that there is a demonstrated, systematic, tendency for project appraisers to be overly optimistic and that to redress this...

Recently as I was concluding a study on megaprojects, I thought of Nobel Prize winner F.A. Hayek's controversial article about the selection of political leaders, Why The Worst Gets on Top. Like Hayek's political leaders we found that is not necessarily the best megaprojects that succeed.

Some years ago I was threatened by a high-ranking government official as I was beginning research on cost overrun in large public works projects. The official told me in no uncertain terms that I came up with results that reflected badly on his government and its projects he would personally...