This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth US$90 billion and representing different project types, geographical regions, and...

In what follows I will: (1) Argue that a major problem in megaproject policy and planning is the high level of misinformation about costs and benefits that decision makers face in deciding whether to build, and the high risks such misinformation generates; (2) Explore the causes of...

I would like to comment on just one point in Todd Landman’s thoughtful review of Making Political Science Matter (Landman 2008). This is Landman’s regret that Making Political Science Matter contains only two examples that demonstrate the utility of phronetic social science as practical...

This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical...

Some years ago, I was threatened by a high-ranking government official as I was beginning research on cost overrun in large public works projects. The official told me in no uncertain terms that if I came up with results that reflected badly on his government and its projects he would personally...

Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1) using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2) using traffic during the first year of...

A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk based on theories of decision-making under uncertainty, which won the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics. First, the...

This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large-infrastructure projects. First, it identifies as the main problem in major infrastructure developments pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits, and risks involved. A consequence of...

Heuristics are fast and frugal rules of thumb, used to simplify complex decisions. First, the paper iden¬tifies two schools of thought in heuristics scholarship, one of positive and one of negative heuristics. Second, the paper explains why heuristics work, based on Occam's razor. Third, it...

Turkish Abstract: Birkaç yıl önce, büyük inşaat projelerindeki maliyet aşımlarını konu eden bir araştırmaya başlamak üzereyken üst düzey bir bürokrat tarafından tehdit edildim. Bu bürokrat, eğer hükümete ait projeler hakkında olumsuz sonuçlar ortaya koyarsam araştırma...