This paper examines the extent to which errors in economic forecasts are driven by initial assumptions that prove to be … incorrect ex post. Therefore, we construct a new data set comprising an unbalanced panel of annual forecasts from different … institutions forecasting German GDP and the underlying assumptions. We explicitly control for different forecast horizons to proxy …

. This study examines whether political preferences shape individuals' forecasts for key economic indicators (using a …) the incentives to report accurate forecasts and, (b) the information about current indicators. The results show that … providing incentives for accuracy reduces the gap between subjects' forecasts regarding different candidates' performance …

economic expectations and forecasts, but also valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties …. We show that, for each of the three main macroeconomic variables forecast - HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the … addition, its combination of quantitative point forecasts and probability distributions with qualitative explanations has …

This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters of the Euro area economy and … forecasters disagree with the average forecast tends to persist over time. This suggests that models of heterogeneous expectation …