Empirical estimates of the effects of fiscal policy tend to be relatively imprecisely estimated. We contend that this is largely due to inadequately controlling for the information set of agents. Given the large increases in government spending on the horizon in the U.S., it is imperative that...

I develop a methodology that uses the forecasts of market participants and of policy makers to estimate the effects of monetary policy on output and inflation. My approach has advantages over the standard practice of fitting a vector autoregression to the data. I apply my methodology to data on...

We use close elections in parliamentary democracies as natural experiments to estimate public debt levels' effects on real interest rates. We first estimate that an election in which no party achieves a parliamentary majority causes the debt-to-GDP ratio to increase by 21 percentage points over...

We study whether the effects of monetary policy are dependent on the demographic structure of the population. We exploit cross-sectional variation in the response of US states to an identified monetary policy shock. We find that there are three distinct age groups. In response to an increase in...

We study whether the effects of monetary policy are dependent on the demographic structure of the population. We exploit cross-sectional variation in the response of US states to an identified monetary policy shock. We find that there are three distinct age groups. In response to an increase in...