We analyze an unbalanced panel monthly predictions of nonfarm payroll (NFP) changes between January 2008 and December 2020 sourced from Bloomberg. Unsurprisingly, we find that prediction quality varies across economists and we reject the hypothesis of equal predictive ability. In an error...

The satisfaction an individual experience with his or her financial position refers to financial well-being. Financial well-being can also be related to financial distress as its subjective indicator. The level of financial well-being may influence the financial decisions of investors and may...

Past research on the topic of sustainable withdrawal rates has primarily focused on longer distribution periods which apply to younger age retirees.A structural problem with pensions, annuities, and first generation "safe withdrawal rate" is a disconnect of benefits paid (fixed or fixed with...

The satisfaction an individual experience with his or her financial position refers to financial well-being. Financial well-being can also be related to financial distress as its subjective indicator. The level of financial well-being may influence the financial decisions of investors and may...

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the differences between the commonly used Monte Carlo simulations that assume a static withdrawal based on a fixed mortality period and initial capital, versus the use of Monte Carlo simulations that re-estimate withdrawal amounts utilizing period life...

This paper presents a new method to detect informed trading activities in the options markets.An option trade is identified as informed when it is characterized by an unusual largeincrement in open interest and volume, induces large gains, and is not hedged in the stock market.For the period...

This pitching research letter presents the reverse-engineering process and personal reflections on a reverse engineered pitch by utilizing the pitching research template developed by Faff (2015, 2017). The pitch template is a simple and useful tool for helping PhD students and other academic...

This paper highlights the hidden dependence of the basic pricing equation of a multi-period consumption-based asset pricing model on price and payoff autocorrelations. We obtain the approximations of the basic pricing equation that describe the mean price “to-day,” mean payoff...

This paper studies the links between the descriptions of macroeconomic variables and statistical moments of market trade, price, and return. The randomness of market trade values and volumes during the averaging interval Δ results in the random properties of price and return. We describe how...

We consider economic obstacles that limit the reliability and accuracy of value-at-risk (VaR). Investors who manage large market transactions should take into account the impact of the randomness of large trade volumes on predictions of price probability and VaR assessments. We introduce...