This paper presents a method to improve the one-step-ahead forecasts of the Spanish unemployment monthly series. To do so, we use numerous potential explanatory variables extracted from searches in Google (GoogleTrends tool).Two different dimension reduction techniques are implemented (PCA and...

This paper presents a method to improve the one-step-ahead forecasts of the Spanish unemployment monthly series. To do so, we use numerous potential explanatory variables extracted from searches in Google (GoogleTrends tool).Two different dimension reduction techniques are implemented (PCA and...

This paper proposes a statistical model and a conceptual framework to estimate inflation volatility assuming rational inattention, where the decay in the level of attention reflects the arrival of news in the market. We estimate trend inflation and the conditional inflation volatility for...

1 Introduction -- 2 Early Globalization: Arguments and Evidence -- 3 Harbingers of Modernity: an Iberian perspective -- 4 Silver production, prices and globalization in the eighteenth century -- 5 The Austrian mining industry and the Iberian globalization -- 6 The Manila Galleon and the Age of...

This book presents an unusual view on one of the most influential periods in world economic history: the Early Globalization. By this term, the notion that a process of genuine globalization took place in the Early Modern Era is defended. The authors propose that the canonical...

The goal of this paper is to estimate the impact of the 2008 and 2020 economic crises on the employment in Spain. We perform a counterfactual analysis, combining intervention (interrupted time series) analysis and conditional forecasting to estimate a “crisis-free” scenario. These...