A Phillips Curve (PC) framework is utilized to study the challenging post-1985 disinflation process in Israel. The estimated PC is stable and has forecasting power. Based on endogenous structural break tests we find that actual and expected inflation are co-breaking. We argue that the step-like...

We re-examine the evidence on the new Phillips curve model of Gali and Gertler (Journal of Monetary Economics 1999) using the conditional score test of Kleibergen (Econometrica 2005),which is robust to weak identification. In contrast to earlier studies, we find that US postwar data are...

This research outlines the Phillips Curve history, examines recent developments in the unemployment – inflation research (especially since the Great Recession and its impact on price and wage inflation dynamics) and takes a fresh look at explaining median wage growth movements with a...

Excessive disinflation and the flattening of the Phillips curve are recently popular phenomena in many advanced economies. In the environment of low inflation, the fading relationship between the price dynamics and the adjustments in the domestic real activity is vigorously investigated for...

Inflation persistence or ‘inertia’ has important consequences for monetary policy. Inflation which does not get eliminated today tends to persist entailing higher costs in the future. In turn, a monetary regime can exert significant influence on inflation persistence by its credibility and...

We use noncausal autoregressions to examine the persistence properties of quarterly U.S. consumer price inflation from 1970:1-2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their conventional causal counterparts, but they allow for...

We present a framework for interpretation of the empirical results of New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics. Both the rational expectations solution of the structural New Keynesian Phillips curve, NKPC, and the reduced form VAR analysis of the multivariate time series properties give...

Two Bayesian sampling schemes are outlined to estimate a K-state Markov switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. Data augmentation for the multinomial logit model of the transition probabilities is alternatively based on a random utility and a difference in random utility...

In recent years, it has become increasingly common to estimate New Keynesian Phillips curves with a measure of firms' real marginal cost as the real driving variable. It has been argued that this measure is both theoretically and empirically superior to the traditional output gap. In this paper,...