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Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902013
We investigate whether the reputation-herding theory or the tradeoff theory explains variation in the timing of … individual analysts' forecasts. Using forecast accuracy improvements, forecast boldness, and the price impact of forecasts as … measures of forecast quality, we find that in the information discovery phase that precedes an earnings announcement event …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905635
deterrence theory that penalties are a more cost-effective means to discourage intentional misreporting. Licenses covering more …-enforcement theory that the greater the opportunity cost of early termination, the greater the licensee's incentives to self …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918020
This monograph is not a review of the empirical accounting literature. This monograph tells a story and relates it to salient empirical phenomena. Why does accounting exist? Our answer is that financial accounting helps firms function efficiently. That efficiency is manifested in many ways, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899532
We study a principal's choice of whether to produce an imperfect forecast about a firm's outcome either before or after … an agent's effort choice. The early forecast affects the agent's effort choice, which means the forecast can also be used … to infer information about the effect of the agent's effort on outcome. The late forecast is more accurate because, by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869744
forecast errors and accruals, which we label “managers' accrual-related forecast bias.” We build on extensive research which … between managers' earnings forecast errors and discretionary accruals, but no association between managers' earnings forecast … errors and nondiscretionary accruals. Furthermore, the association between managers' earnings forecast errors and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955306
In this study, we examine the strategic intraday and intraweek timing of management forecast announcements based on …, we find evidence that strategically timed bad news forecast announcements that are released after the market closes are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039315
the importance of time as an independent in a tree based forecast …This paper analyzes the impact of including and excluding time when there is a regime change in the explanatory power …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891345
affects the trade-off between timeliness and forecast quality. We find that the optimal forecasting time varies non … time goes by. Both the low and high skill analysts tend to issue their forecast sooner than the analysts with intermediate … present a model in which forecast accuracy and timing are affected by information uncertainty stemming from (i) the presence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928822
For the flexible job shop (FJSP) completion time prediction problem considering environmental noise, the mathematical … model of the problem, the sample generator and the completion time prediction model based on AE-CNN-LSTM are constructed … information and generic state information, respectively; finally, the real-time and historical state features are passed into the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014359563