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Another piece of the puzzle : adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of world trade

Ghazaryan, Narek; Goumilevski, Alexei; Mongardini, Joannes - 2021

international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they … have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content … from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794915

Improving the short-term forecast of world trade during the Covid-19 pandemic using SWIFT data on letters of credit

Carton, Benjamin; Hu, Nan; Mongardini, Joannes; Moriya, Kei - 2020

-learning algorithms for the world and 40 large economies shows that forecasts based on linear regressions often outperform those based on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392595

Machine Learning the Gravity Equation for International Trade

Verstyuk, Sergiy; Douglas, Michael R. - 2022

by economic theory. The resulting symbolic models contain objects resembling market access functions, which were …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013297122

An interpretable machine learning workflow with an application to economic forecasting

Buckmann, Marcus; Joseph, Andreas - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013286828

Shapley values as an interpretability technique in credit scoring

Toit, Hendrik Andries du; Schutte, Willem Daniël; … - In: The journal of risk model validation 17 (2023) 4, pp. 21-47

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014485964

Geoeconomic pressure

Clayton, Christopher; Coppola, Antonio; Maggiori, Matteo; … - 2025

Geoeconomic pressure - the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic ends - has become a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically extract signals of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015399742

Digital future of international trade in the global markets of intellectual resources : labour mobility and automation based on smart technologies

Petrenko, E. S; Denisov, Igor V.; Busalova, Aglaia D.; … - In: International journal of trade and global markets 18 (2023) 2/3, pp. 254-265

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015062054

The new logic of globalization: uncertainty, volatility, and the digital economy

Tyson, Laura D'Andrea; Zysman, John; Judge, Brian - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014365491

Exporting the Surveillance State via Trade in AI

Beraja, Martin; Kao, Andrew; Yang, David Y.; Yuchtman, Noam - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We document three facts about the global diffusion of surveillance AI technology, and in particular, the role played by China. First, China has a comparative advantage in this technology. It is substantially more likely to export surveillance AI than other countries, and particularly so as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372433

Forecasting world trade using big data and machine learning techniques

Dubovik, Andrei; Elbourne, Adam; Hendriks, Bram; … - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013380606