relationship between a change in trend growth rates and forecast bias, as suggested in the literature, breaks down when only …-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for …

lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of … Professional Forecaster as well as in the Livingston Survey, and that their magnitudes depend on the forecasting horizon. Moreover … forecast to form expectations is a rather smart thing to do if cognitive limitations and biases cause any attempt to build an …

lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of … Professional Forecasters as well as in the Livingston Survey, and that their magnitudes depend on the forecasting horizon. Moreover … forecast to form expectations is a reasonable thing to do if a forecaster is not able to come up with fully rational …

research. Many forecast surveys ask their participants for fixed-event forecasts. Since fixed-event forecasts have seasonal … very flexible. The forecast to be approximated as well as the information employed by the approximation can be any linear …