This economic journal contains theoretical and empirical analyses of varous macroeconomic issues. The studies are prepapred by IMF research staff or consultants. Subjects covered inclulde balance of payments and exchange rates, monetary systems and policies, public finances, international trade,...

This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the...

This paper argues that an important group of labor market policies are complementary in the sense that the effect of each policy is greater when implemented in conjunction with the other policies than in isolation. This may explain why the diverse, piecemeal labor market reforms in many European...

The Chilean pension reform of 1981, a shift from cm unfunded to a funded scheme, is considered to have contributed to this country’s excellent economic performance. Positive growth effects allow, in principle, a Pareto-improving shift in pension financing. This paper highlights the theoretical...

This paper highlights that the growth of world economic activity in 1991 is expected to fall to a scant 1 percent, the lowest in any year since 1982, when the industrial economies were in recession. The slowdown in the expansion of world trade would be considerably more pronounced. Output growth...

In this issue, a team of economists look at approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or permanent phenomenon. Era Dabla-Norris and Gabriela Inchauste examine what drives the growth of firms, with a focus on...

This paper analyzes portfolio diversification, leverage, and financial contagion. It studies the extent to which basic principles of portfolio diversification explain “contagious selling” of financial assets when there are purely local shocks. The paper demonstrates that the elementary...

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF’s leading economists’ analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers...

This paper highlights that world economic activity showed signs of revival in the first half of 1992 as some major economies slowly began to emerge from the cyclical downturns of 1990–91. During the next 12 months, world growth is expected to continue to recover at a moderate pace. Following...

This paper highlights that the performance of the world economy in the first half of 1988 has been considerably more satisfactory than was expected in the wake of the sharp stock market decline in October 1987. Output in industrial countries has grown strongly, world trade has been robust, and...