We quantify the impact of unexpectedly assigned tasks on overtime work in the context of Japanese government officials. Data on overtime work are typically less reliable. We overcome this problem by using mobile phone location data, which enables us to precisely measure the nighttime population...

Recently, Patton and Timmermann (2012) proposed a more powerful kind of forecast efficiency regression at multiple horizons, and showed that it provides evidence against the efficiency of the Fed’s Greenbook forecasts. I use their forecast efficiency evaluation to propose a method for...

Much research has been concerned with forecast efficiency regressions. Recently, Patton and Timmermann (2012) proposed a more powerful kind of forecast efficiency regression at multiple horizons, which provides evidence against the efficiency of the Fed's Greenbook forecasts. I use their...

Since 2007, FOMC policymakers have been publishing detailed numerical projections of macroeconomic series over the next three years. By testing whether the revisions to these projections are unpredictable, I find that FOMC's efficiency is generally accepted for inflation, but often rejected for...

This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy announcements at the zero lower bound using Japanese data from 1998 to 2013. I find that the effect of expansionary monetary policy shocks is directly passed on to corporate bond yields, notably for high-grade corporate bond yields. However,...

We quantify the impact of unexpectedly assigned tasks on overtime work in the context of Japanese government officials. Data on overtime work are typically less reliable. We overcome this problem by using mobile phone location data, which enables us to precisely measure the nighttime population...