the real-time nowcast of German inflation. Our nowcasting exercise targets three hierarchy levels of inflation: individual … products, product groups, and headline inflation. At the individual product level, we construct a large set of weekly scanner …-frequency setup, these indices significantly improve inflation nowcasts already after the first seven days of a month. For nowcasting …

techniques can help to improve the nowcast of monthly German inflation in real time. Our nowcasting exercise targets three … the lowest aggregation level underlying official German inflation, such as those of butter and coffee beans. We show that … demonstrate that these scanner-based price indices improve inflation nowcasts at this very narrow level, notably already after the …

We present a hierarchical architecture based on recurrent neural networks for predicting disaggregated inflation … components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the majority of existing research is focused on predicting headline inflation … evaluations indicate that the HRNN model significantly outperforms a vast array of well-known inflation prediction baselines. Our …

We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches using a dataset for Germany that … vector autoregression and model averaging techniques, where aggregation takes place before, during and after the estimation … provide the most precise forecasts for a set of eleven core macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth and CPI inflation …

for policymakers who aim to develop an effective system for real-time monitoring of inflation dynamics at a very granular …

This paper considers inflation forecasting for a vast panel of countries. We combine the information from common … factors driving global inflation as well as country-specific inflation in order to build a set of different models. We also …

This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation … inflation with the ability of quantile regression to model flexibly the whole distribution of inflation. In order to make our …-based indicators for the prediction of the conditional distribution of inflation in the euro area, both in the short and longer run …

the real-time nowcast of German inflation. Our nowcasting exercise targets three hierarchy levels of inflation: individual … products, product groups, and headline inflation. At the individual product level, we construct a large set of weekly scanner …-frequency setup, these indices significantly improve inflation nowcasts already after the first seven days of a month. For nowcasting …