In the analysis of tax reform, when equity is traded off against efficiency, the measurement of the latter requires us to know how tax- induced price changes affect quantities supplied and demanded. In this paper, we present various econometric procedures for estimating how taxes affect demand....

This paper considers a moments based non-linear estimator that is root-T consistent and uniformly asymptotically normal irrespective of the degree of persistence of the forcing process. These properties hold for linear autoregressive models, linear predictive regressions, as well as certain...

Are there important cyclical fluctuations in bond market premiums and, if so, with what macroeconomic aggregates do these premiums vary? We use the methodology of dynamic factor analysis for large datasets to investigate possible empirical linkages between forecastable variation in excess bond...

This paper uses the factor augmented regression framework to analyze the relation between bond excess returns and the macro economy. Using a panel of 131 monthly macroeconomic time series for the sample 1964:1-2007:12, we estimate 8 static factors by the method of asymptotic principal...

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are often solved and estimated under specific assumptions as to whether the exogenous variables are difference or trend stationary. However, even mild departures of the data generating process from these assumptions can severely bias the...

This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession which was unlike most other post-war recessions in the US in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial...

This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the unforecastable component of a large number of economic indicators. Our estimates display significant independent variations from...

This paper analyzes weekly scanner data collected for 108 groups at the county level between 2006 and 2014. The data display multi-dimensional weekly seasonal effects that are not exactly periodic but are cross-sectionally dependent. Existing univariate procedures are imperfect and yield...