Federalist systems of government are commonly characterized by multiple and overlapping governmental jurisdictions. 'New Urbanism' literature often argues that this arrangement is inefficient and favors a consolidated government model. By contrast 'Local Public Economy' literature favors the...

Stochastic optimisation has found a fertile ground for applications in finance. One of the greatest challenges remains to incorporate a set of scenarios that accurately models the behaviour of financial markets, and in particular their behaviour during crashes and crises, without sacrificing the...

In this paper, the authors describe a simple procedure for blending statistical estimates with expert opinions to produce a forward-looking view of the performance of assets. They discuss the impact of behavioural biases on the views and propose general modelling principles to biases. Standard...

In contrast to conventional model-based derivative pricing, a recent stream of research aims to investigate what prices are consistent with absence of arbitrage, given only the current prices of traded options on the same underlying. This paper gives a succinct survey of work in this area. After...

This paper defines a Beaufort Predictability Index, analogous to the Beaufort Wind Force Scale, to assist analysts in sizing up statistical prediction problems; for background we outline the career of Francis Beaufort and the genesis of his Wind Force Scale. We then describe the various versions...

We investigate the links between various no-arbitrage conditions and the existence of pricing functionals in general markets, and prove the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing therein. No-arbitrage conditions, either in this abstract setting or in the case of a market consisting of European...

This paper examines the effect of biased expert opinions on asset allocation. Expert opinions, such as brokerage research and analyst views, are an essential component of the asset management sector and an important research topic. However, the effect of behavioral biases on expert opinions is...

We construct a dynamical credit model that can be calibrated exactly to CDS quotes. Modelling the default time as the first-passage time of a credit index process to the level zero, we show that the parameters of this credit index process can be chosen such that the risk-neutral (implied)...

We examine the pricing of variance swaps and some generalizations and variants such as self-quantoed variance swaps, gamma swaps, skewness swaps and proportional variance swaps.We consider the pricing of both discretely monitored and continuously monitored versions of these swaps when the...

In this article, we extend the Black-Litterman approach to a continuous time setting. We model analyst views jointly with asset prices to estimate the unobservable factors driving asset returns. The key in our approach is that the filtering problem and the stochastic control problem are...