We elicit forecasts of how AI will affect the U.S. economy, comparing the beliefs of five groups: academic economists, employees at AI companies, policy researchers focused on AI, highly accurate forecasters, and the general public. The median respondent in each group expects substantial...

This paper estimates the economic value to the United States of eliminating cancer mortality over a 35-year horizon beginning in 2030, which would eliminate 30.7 million cancer deaths with a total mortality burden of 380 million life-years. We quantify the economic value of this substantial...

Consumer sentiment influences household behavior in important ways, yet we lack causal evidence on whether government policies themselves shape these perceptions. We help fill this gap by studying the expiration of the expanded 2021 Child Tax Credit (CTC), which abruptly reduced household income...

As part of the comprehensive Construction Re-engineering Initiative at the U.S. Census Bureau, alternative data sources are being considered to supplement or replace current data collection methods. For the Survey of Construction (SOC), which measures new residential construction, this includes...

Despite intense competition among mortgage lenders, borrowers face substantial price dispersion. We argue that realtor-loan officer referral networks are a key source of lender market power: by steering homebuyers toward a small set of loan officers, these networks restrict effective borrower...