Structured additive regression (STAR) models provide a flexible framework for modeling possible nonlinear effects of covariates: They contain the well established frameworks of generalized linear models (GLM) and generalized additive models (GAM) as special cases but also allow a wider class of...

We follow the idea of exploiting cross-sectional information to improve recession probability forecasts by aggregating indicator-specific turning point predictions to obtain economy-wide recession probabilities. This stands in contrast to most of the relevant literature, which relies on an...

The paper tests for nonlinearities in the adjustment of the euro exchange rate towards purchasing power parity (PPP). It presents new survey based evidence consistent with non-linear patterns in euro exchange rate dynamics. Moreover, based on an exponential smooth transition autoregressive...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to expand on the sparse literature on non-linear modelling in South Africa and test for non-linearity of the market cycle on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, with specific focus on a particular non-linear model – a Smooth Transition Auto-Regressive...

This paper investigates GLS detrending procedures for unit root tests against nonlinear stationary alternative hypotheses where deterministic components are assumed present in the series under investigation. It is found that the proposed procedures have considerable power gains in a majority of...

This paper considers a sequence of misspecification tests for a flexible nonlinear time series model. The model is a generalization of both the Smooth Transition AutoRegressive (STAR) and the AutoRegressive Artificial Artificial Neural Network (AR-ANN) models. The tests are Lagrange multiplier...

The study of the asymmetric behavior of macroeconomic variables over the business cycles phases has had a long tradition in economics. In this work we find evidence in favor of the hypothesis of having a Star-type nonlinear asymmetric behavoir of the economy activity, over the last two decades,...

The paper tests for nonlinearities in the adjustment of the euro exchange rate towards purchasing power parity (PPP). It presents new survey based evidence consistent with non-linear patterns in euro exchange rate dynamics. Moreover, based on an exponential smooth transition autoregressive...