The study examines four alternative rental forecasting models in the context of the London office market. We compare and contrast the forecasting ability of an ARIMA model, a Bayesian Vector Autoregression approach, a Structural model and a simultaneous equation model, in addition to some...

In estimating the inputs into the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) portfolio optimisation problem it is usual to use equal weighted historic data. Equal weighting of the data, however, does not take account of the current state of the market. Consequently this approach is unlikely to perform well...

ERES:conference

ERES:conference

This paper examines the behaviour of the Irish housing market during the boom of the late nineties. The market experienced substantial price increases in the late nineties. This paper aims to examine the fundamental factors at play in the Irish market and to see if a speculative element was...

In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements....

S<sc>tevenson</sc> S., A<sc>kimov</sc> A., H<sc>utson</sc> E. and K<sc>rystalogianni</sc> A. Concordance in global office market cycles, <italic>Regional Studies</italic>. A large proportion of international real estate investment is concentrated in the office markets of the world's largest cities. However, many of these global cities are also key...

This paper considers supply dynamics in the context of the Irish residential market. The analysis, in a multiple error-correction framework, reveals that although developers did respond to disequilibrium in supply, the rate of adjustment was relatively slow. In contrast, however, disequilibrium...

We compare and contrast the accuracy and uncertainty in forecasts of rents with those for a variety of macroeconomic series. The results show that in general forecasters tend to be marginally more accurate in the case of macro-economic series than with rents. In common across all of the series,...

This study examines the rationality and momentum in forecasts for rental, capital value and total returns for the real estate investment market in the United Kingdom. In order to investigate if forecasters are affected by the general economic conditions present at the time of forecast we...