This paper proposes comprehensive measures of the Latin American business cycle that help to infer the expected deepness of recessions, and strength of expansions, as they unfold in real time. These measures are based on the largest country economies in the region by accounting for intrinsic...

In this article, we measure changes in the synchronization of housing price cycles across Spanish cities over time. We rely on a regime-switching framework that identifies the housing price cycles of pairs of cities and simultaneously infers the evolving relation between those cycles. These...

The volatility of real GDP growth in the United States hasfallen by half since the early 1980s relative to the priorpostwar experience.1 Inflation also stabilized around then(although only when compared with a shorter period ofvolatility in the 1970s). Some studies have argued that animprovement...