This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

I discuss econometric issues of high relevance to economists in central banks whose job is to interpret the permanency of shocks and provide policy advice to policymakers. Trend, unit root, and persistence are difficult to interpret. There are numerous econometric tests, which vary in their...

I discuss econometric issues of high relevance to economists in central banks whose job is to interpret the permanency of shocks and provide policy advice to policymakers. Trend, unit root, and persistence are difficult to interpret. There are numerous econometric tests, which vary in their...

Positive correlation between intermediate goods trade and business cycle comovement raises the question of causality. Existing theories propose the direction from trade to comovement, but don't explain positive correlation of trade with TFP comovement, also in the data. My model predicts both...

This paper describes NEMO, the main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model used at Norges Bank for monetary policy analysis and forecasting. NEMO has been used to identify the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Norway, to conduct scenario analysis, to produce macroeconomic...

In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of public spending on economic growth in DR Congo. This is to highlight the non-linear effects of public expenditure on economic growth in the DRC. In view of the results of the econometric regression, there are non-linearities in the...

We develop unit root tests that allow under the alternative hypothesis for a smooth transition between deterministic linear trends, around which stationary asymmetric adjustment may occur by employing exponential smooth transition auto-regressive (ESTAR) models The small sample properties of the...

The paper focuses on China’s economic integration with Asia region and the world. It also attempts to find the long run relation with short run dynamics of China’s trade in Asia and the world. The augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) methods are applied to test the...

The study analyses comovement between the real effective exchange rate of South Africa and those of a sample of countries that include the world’s major economies as well as emerging and developing economies. The comovement is examined over the short and long term as well as pre and post the...