Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This paper examines the issue of how to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital bufferâ€, a...

Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This article examines the issue of how best to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital bufferâ€, a...

This paper describes the stress-testing framework used in the Czech central bank and focuses on the general question of how to calibrate the models and parameters used to stress test the most important risks in the banking system. The paper argues that stress tests should be calibrated...

The Czech Republic had experienced a credit boom similar to those in other converging economies in the pre-crisis years. Nevertheless, the consequences of this credit boom were limited as was the impact of the global crisis on domestic financial institutions. This paper describes the...

The Czech Republic had experienced a credit boom similar to those in other converging economies in the pre-crisis years. Nevertheless, the consequences of this credit boom were limited as was the impact of the global crisis on domestic financial institutions. This paper describes the...

The recent Covid-19 pandemic has increased the importance of properly forecasting macro-financial developments in turbulent times. Only a limited number of studies focus on how to employ macro-financial models to project key real and financial sector variables under large shocks and unusual...

Motivated by migration phenomena and wage-inflation spillovers, we investigate the relationship between the two and the inflationary remittances built-in pressures. We establish a feedback loop between migration and inflation, and specify a simple dynamic model to identify the pass-through. Our...

The paper uses a dynamic inconsistency model known from monetary policy to assess three alternative proposals how to reform fiscal constitution in order to limit government’s incentive to use fiscal policy for maximizing political support. The return to ever-balanced-budget rule,...