Accurate and economically useful oil price forecasts have gained significant importance over the last decade. The majority of the studies use information from the oil market fundamentals to generate oil price forecasts. Nevertheless, the extant literature has convincingly shown that oil prices...

The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...

Despite the arguments that are put forward by the literature that oil price forecasts are economically useful, such claim has not been tested to date. In this study we evaluate the economic usefulness of oil price forecasts by means of conditional forecasting of three core macroeconomic...

Risk metrics users assume that the moments of asset returns exist, irrespectively of the trading frequency, hence the observed values of these moments are used to capture the potential losses from asset trading (e.g. with Value-at-Risk (VaR) or Expected Shortfall (ES) calculations). Despite the...

Purpose – Aims to investigate the accuracy of parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric methods in predicting the one‐day‐ahead value‐at‐risk (VaR) measure in three types of markets (stock exchanges, commodities, and exchange rates), both for long and short trading positions....