The goal of this paper is to assist the trader in answering two questions: 1) "What is a reasonable performance estimate of the long-run edge of the trading system?" and, 2) "What worst-case contingencies must be tolerated in short-run performance in order to achieve the long-run expectation?"...

In this paper I derive a test of Multicointegration of I (2) series that takes into account both structural breaks and threshold adjustment to steady state. I extend the I(2) –multicointegration test proposed by Berenguer-Rico and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2005), by relaxing the assumption of...

In this study, we compare the Hodrick-Prescott Filter technique concerning the Fractional filtering technique, which has recently started to be used in various applied sciences, i.e., physics, engineering, and biology. We apply these filtering techniques to the quarterly GDP data of Turkey,...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

In spite of the extensive research which has already been undertaken, the issue as to whether Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) empirically holds, continues to be strongly debated. Existing studies have been criticized for their reliance on unit root tests which are deemed to suffer from certain...

This paper describes a modelling methodology for multivariate stochastic processes. The concept of multiple causality is discussed and a procedure to detect multiple causality is suggested. The data of a major Canadian supermarket is analyzed and a multivariate autoregressive model for this...

In establishing the foundation of their investment process, global equity investors typically adopt a framework along geographic and/or industry dimensions. The chosen framework is then applied to the whole investment process including alpha generation, portfolio construction, and risk...

The paper is an empirical research work wherein the principle of Modern Portfolio Theory along with aspects of geographical diversification have been subjected to test. The validation of the said theory has been made via hypothesis testing in light of the financial market data. The paper has...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...