Recent academic and practitioner attention has focused on currency momentum. In this paper we replicate technical trading rules to assess their relationship with momentum. From an investment perspective, the average out-of-sample pre-transaction cost Sharpe ratio of technical trading rules is...

Predictability of currency returns, based on Carry, Momentum and Value, is widely accepted in the literature. This paper shows that out-of-sample replication of the predictors, following publication of preeminent academic studies of their risk, reveals returns have disappeared. From an...

FX hedge funds have experienced very weak returns and high fund failure rates, as currency predictability decays. The managers of these funds face strong incentives to concentrate on new asset classes, creating a natural experiment to test whether observed manager skill is FX specific, or...