Cette étude analyse les liens entre la croissance et l’investissement public au cours des années 80 à l’aide d’un modèle économétrique d’équations simultanées, estimé sur un échantillon de 28 pays en développement sur onze ans (1981-91). Ce modèle décrit les déterminants de...

The variety of channels through which devaluation of the exchange rate impacts on real tax receipts, calls for empirical clarification. This paper should be seen as a first attempt towards empirical evidence. It establishes the causal relationships between the real exchange rate and real tax...

One of the particular features of poor countries’ economies is their volatility, due mostly to their dependence on commodities. The paper shows that this volatility is a prime factor behind the debt crises of the poorest countries. It advocates the adoption by donors of a new lending...

Ce document présente un modèle dynamique de simulation de l'économie mexicaine, centré sur les effets de l'endettement public. Trois principales variables sont au coeur de la dynamique économique qui est décrite ici: le taux d'intérêt réel interne, le prix du marché secondaire de la...

A basic feature of development dynamics is the reallocation of labour from low– productivity to higher–productivity activities (generally more capital–intensive and also often more skill–intensive). The expansion of skilled labour supply that accompanies rising per capita incomes is both...

This paper studies sovereign debt crises during the period 1993-2006 through the prism of the primary sovereign bond market. Two conclusions emerge. First, investment banks price sovereign default risk well before crises occur and before investors detect default risk. Between three and one years...

The increased importance of rating agencies for emerging-market finance has brought their work to the attention of a wider group of observers — and under criticism. This paper evaluates whether the importance of ratings for developing-country finance has changed since the Asian Crisis and...

Egypt, the oldest and most populous country in the Arab world, and one of its most influential in the Southern Mediterranean region, is now moving into the global economy. During the 1990s the country has pursued successful macroeconomic stabilisation policies and has also begun the structural...

We assess the prospects for growth of African economies up to the year 2010 by modelling structural and policy determinants of growth, under different scenarios for changes in the exogenous factors and economic policies which shape the projections. To this end we estimate a growth model for 39...

This case study of Mexico examines developments in agricultural biotechnology against the background of recent changes in macro-economic, environmental and agricultural policies as well as in the regulation of the seeds industry, intellectual property protection and biosafety. It also identifies...