This paper shows how the reaction of selected emerging CEE currencies to increased uncertainty depends on market sentiment in a core advanced economy or even on the global scale. On the example of the Czech koruna, a highly stylized model of portfolio allocation between EUR- and CZK-denominated...

This paper analyzes both the cross-sectional and time variation in aggregate monetary policy transmission from nominal short-term interest rates to the price level. Using Bayesian TVP-VAR models where structural monetary policy shocks are identified by a mixture of short-term and sign...

This paper contributes to a better understanding of how inflation targets are set. First, we gather evidence on how inflation targets are set from official central bank and government publications and from a questionnaire of our own design. Second, we estimate the determinants of the level of...

Using a panel of 40 EU and OECD countries for the period 1970-2010 we construct an early warning system. The system consists of a discrete and a continuous model. In the discrete model, we collect an extensive database of various types of economic crises called CDEC 40-40 and examine potential...

Assuming information asymmetry between private agents and the central bank about the state of the economy, an unexpected change in interest rates signals the central bank's perceived state of the economy and facilitates an update of private expectations in an adverse, perhaps unintended way....

Monitoring a suitable set of early warning indicators is crucial for the optimal timing of macroprudential measures aimed at reducing the risk of financial crises or at least mitigating their impact on the economy. This article sets out to identify the indicators that should be monitored and to...